...probably depends upon whether or not Hezbollah starts to disarm. Right now, I would say chances of them disarming seem slim, if only because of the current rhetoric being spewed forth by Hezobollah leader: Sheik Hassan Nasrallah .
The following is from FoxNews.com @
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,215146,00.html:
"Hezbollah spokesman Hussein Rahhal said Nasrallah would deliver a "landmark historic speech" addressing international calls for his group's disarmament and the deployment of U.N. peacekeepers in south Lebanon, which for years has been controlled by the militant group.
The U.N.-brokered cease-fire that ended fighting between the guerrillas and Israel on Aug. 14 calls for stripping Hezbollah of its weapons, but Nasrallah has been defiant."
The above quote sure makes it seem like Hezobollah has not been willing to follow the UN brokered ceasefire does it! Not that this comes as any surprise to me. When is the last time that that an Arabic or Islamic nation has followed the letter of such a UN agreement? Of course, as it goes right now, Israel is still pulling out of Lebanon. The Israelis are following the agreement as far as I am aware. The thing is, if Hezbollah breaks the agreement, then why should the Israelis keep following it? Maybe they will think like that in Israel too, and maybe that will lead to them going right back into Lebanon to kick some more of Hezbollah's butts - it would not surprise me at all.
As the war turned out, Israel met a fairly prepared, well trained enemy, on the enemy's home ground, and it worked out to a stalemate, or with Israel somewhat in the lead militarily. If they go in again, my guess would be they will be much better prepared to do so, and it will take time to prepare. Don't allow that to fool you though, I believe they will go back in one whole heck of a lot sooner if Hezbollah fires as few as one rocket again. If they fail to disarm, Israel may wait a while longer, but I would be willing to wager that they will go back in if there is no disarmament of Hezbollah.
I am anxiously awaiting the speech that Nasrallah is to give. Who knows, maybe Israel will send him a message via a missile attack as he makes any speech defying the UN brokered deal.
All the best,
Glenn B
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