Boston, the Marathon, the explosions, the injured, the dead,
the unexploded devices, the media reports, the statements made by law
enforcement and witnesses, the videos of what happened, all the other bombings
that have preceded this one – have they gotten you to think about what happened
yesterday? You can bet that the experts are thinking about it all, trying to
figure out what happened and they are collecting, examining and analyzing the
evidence. We do not have that ability, at least we cannot collect, examine and
then analyze the hard evidence but we can analyze what is available to us such
as the content of news reports as to what took place, what we have seen in
videos of the explosions, the result of the explosions (as reported to us) and
we can do so against what we know already about previous bombings.
I don’t know about you but I have been doing that since I
heard about the bombings. I am certainly not a bomb expert although I have rudimentary
education in how to construct a bomb (mostly from what I learned of them as a
federal agent or as a result of watching televised news reports about bombings)
and that includes how to detonate them remotely. I do not know much but know
enough about explosive materials to be able to formulate the them. I know little
about the actual physics of an explosion but again, I have, as does anyone who
pays attention to current events on the news, some knowledge about how to place
a bomb for more effect as opposed to ineffectually placing one, and I know
about how to place and time multiple explosive devices to achieve the greatest
amount of injuries and deaths. It has all been reported over and over and over
again on the media. I also know that the hardest things to obtain in relation to
an improvised explosive device are not the projectiles (ball bearings, nails,
screws are available at any hardware store), are not the bomb casings (metal
pipes, cans, PVC tubes and other things are available just about anywhere), are not
the detonators (electronics used to set off bombs are easily obtainable at drug
stores, phone stores electronic shops). The most difficult thing to obtain
, or to formulate, would be the actual explosive compound. Yeah, sure, you can buy fertilizer and
fuel oil to make an explosive but that does not make the actual explosive easy
to formulate. You need the know-how. You can also get black powder, ready-made,
but it is much less effective than Semtex ounce per ounce. It is not all that
difficult to get an explosive compound but it certainly is not easy to get or
make one that will do damage very effectively; this one was nowhere nearly as effective as a high explosive.
I also know that when an established group does something
like this, they usually claim credit or responsibility for it right away. They
have an agenda and one of the things that keeps them in the limelight is
pushing that agenda by way of publicity associated with terrorists acts for
which they claim credit. That is one of the reasons as to why so many groups
often claim to be responsible for a single act of terrorism for which another
group is actually responsible. In addition, I know a lone wolf does not often
claim responsibility for such an act, at least not as quickly as would a
terrorist group seeking infamy, because an individual is usually more cautious
at the outset of his or her nefarious deeds. In addition, it is sometimes the
case, that the lone bomber is killed in the act of setting off the explosions
and we only find out about him or her after a decent amount of investigation has
concluded that it was a lone bomber.
As I said, all this has gotten me to thinking. The hypothesis
I have reached, mind you, based upon what scant evidence I have seen is that
the person or persons who perpetrated these acts was or were amateurs with very
little training. It could be that the person or people responsible for placing
and setting off those bombs were part of a larger conspiracy but my initial
guess would be that if they were part of a larger group, then the whole group
is one of amateurs and not experienced in previous acts of terrorism, at least
not in bombings. Why do I say that.
Well, first off, the placement and the timing of the bombs
was amateurish. The first bomb, or maybe it was the second, to go off was
placed in area in which there was a large crowd but was not placed for greatest
effect. There was a storefront behind the bomb and the street in front of it.
The storefront had a large glass window as could be seen in news clips and
photos. What that means is that the blast had little resistance on any side and
the blast wave expanded just about equally in all directions except down into
the ground. Had the bomber placed the bomb with a concrete wall to one side,
instead of a glass storefront, it would have directed the blast out toward the
street and the bystanders with much more force.
Then there was the placement of the bombs about a block
apart instead of much closer to one another. Had they been closer to one
another, then first responders who came to the aid of the initial victims of
the first blast would have been injured by the second blast as would have been
people trying to run from the first blast. As it was, the second blast was too
far from the first to achieve as effective a secondary kill zone. Thus, a
second device would have been better off placed somewhat closer, at the
furthest, I would guess it should have been placed at the nearest intersection because
most folks would be running through the intersection either to respond or
escape but the second one was placed a block or more away from what I could
make out in the videos. So whoever did it had the notion of a secondary device
creating additional victims but did not have the actual technical knowhow of
how to get it right. This makes me think it was not only someone with little to
no experience in such things but that the bomber had little training from
someone who had the knowhow.
In addition, there was the timing between the explosions.
There was only about 15 seconds between the first and second blast. It would
take longer, for people to have realized what had happened and then either run
from the area where the first went off to where the second was planted for it
to have effectively gotten more victims as they tried to escape. Likewise for
first responders. The timing was off to achieve greater effect and this makes
me think that both bombs were remotely set off by an amateur who was swept up
in the excitement of the moment and set off the second bomb prematurely or who
had them timed poorly because of inexperience.
What else is there to go on. Well, judging from the video of
the first explosion, for which there were at least a couple to a few different
views available to us, I would say, again guesswork, that the explosive used
was not a high explosive but was a lower grade explosive. Had it been a high
grade explosive, the force of the explosion would have knocked many more people
to the ground and shaken stationary objects like light poles, fixed cameras (on
tripods or other stands), and sign posts. We did not see almost any of that.
What we saw was a small blast, with a large cloud of gray smoke, something akin
to an explosion of black powder. An explosion that would require a lot more to
do the same job that only a little of a high explosive could accomplish. This
tied in with the poor placement, already mentioned above, as to the glass storefront
as opposed to a strong wall to one side of the explosive to guide the explosion
out from the wall again has the signature of an amateur or poorly trained
individual.
Then there was the overall timing of the explosions. Had
they gone off as the winners were crossing the finish line, the effect would
have been at least somewhat more effective if only psychologically so. There
would have been much more media coverage of the actual event at that time.
Several news crews had already departed the area by the time the bombs went
off. Terrorists are not merely successful because they maim and kill people and
destroy property, they succeed in their reigns of terror by having their
heinous acts publicized as much as possible. I think it likely that had this
been perpetrated by a terrorist operative who had been trained by an organized
terrorist organization it would have
been orchestrated for maximum media coverage.
Now, as I readily admit, I am certainly no expert on any of
this; heck I am not even an amateur. It is all guess work on my part based upon
what little I know of previous similar events. What amazes me is that I have
not heard one iota of anything like what I just said coming from even a single
member of the news media or from any of the usual pundits. Granted, maybe that
is because what I just hypothesized is all wrong. Yet, I am more than willing
to bet just a little that we are going to find out that either this was a lone
wolf psycho (right or left wing extremist, it does not matter which because
psycho will be the key word) or it was committed by a wanna be member of a
major terrorist group who had the moral support of terrorist cell and handlers
but had little actual training from them and who received little actual physical
material from them to get the job done. Then again, I guess, I have to keep in
mind that many terrorists are not rocket scientists and that it does not
require an advanced physics or mechanical engineering degree to impart an awful
lot of terror and misery onto unsuspecting victims and there were a lot of victims. Yet, I just keep thinking that a knowledgeable bomber, with the proper resources, would have created 5 to 10 times as much devastation with the two bombs that went off.
That is all just my hypothesis, I am not saying that is how it happened, I am just guesstimating, based on my scant knowledge of previous such acts, that the bomber(s) in this instance was or were poorly trained in what he, she or they set out to do. I shudder to think about the outcome had the guilty person(s) been well trained, previously experienced, and sufficiently equipped terrorists.
Edited, on 04/16, to add: I want to be absolutely clear on this, I am not trying to belittle the loss of any victim's life or the horrid injuries that many people suffered by saying that I believe whoever did this was amateurish. Because I think the bomber(s) was probably inexperienced does not make the act that was committed any less a terrorist act. Regardless of the level of expertise of the bomber, the outcome was terrifying. Even one injury was too many; yet, whoever did this injured scores of people and killed others. The injuries sustained by people were horrific, that is certain. The loss of life definitely most terrible and saddening. The emotional injuries and scarring, to they who lost loved ones or had loved ones injured or who were injured but survived, unendurable yet long lasting. The disregard shown by the bomber(s) for the victims is unfathomable but worthy of every effort to understand it so to be better able to hunt down the killers and swiftly bring them to justice. As I said in my earlier post about the bombing, I am keeping all of the victims and their loved ones in my thoughts and prayers and I mean that most sincerely.
All the best,
Glenn B
The mags are Tapco USA Intrafuse, 10 round, black composite magazines, in 7.72x39, for the AK47. I bought 30 of them fearing the above mentioned deadline. Tonight, I joined about 29 other members of Long Island Firearms at the Nassau County Range for the LIF monthly shoot at that location. I brought along 20 of the new mags and just enough ammo to test them all. As it turned out, I only wound up testing ten of them. I figured that testing 1/3 of the mags I had bought was more than a good enough representative sample. I have to say, they functioned flawlessly.
...but my boss was very understanding when I showed him this picture. Yes, that is a tractor trailer with its roof sheared off. I do not quite understand what it is about the signs that say "No Trucks" and "No Commercial Traffic" for the parkways in New York State but truck driver frequently disregard them. I imagine it could be because they are written in English and some of the drivers refuse to learn the language. Thus, I think, it is all their fault that things like this happens. Even without the signs, the underpasses, like the one this truck hit, are obviously too low for these trucks to pass underneath. Well, that is how I see them and I am pretty surprised that the drivers do not realize it before they hit. My guess is that this guy was hauling ass and was totally oblivious. Most trucks get stuck 1/4 to 1/2 way through the underpasses. This guy seems to have made it all the way through and took off his truck's whole roof. Note there was not a tow truck there capable of getting him out from under it.
