...and you may think it looks to be pretty impressive as it closed at its all time high closing today.
"Nevertheless, the index held onto enough of the day's gains to finish in record territory at 11,727.34, up 56.99 points."
from FoxNews.com @ http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,217361,00.html
I am a bit impressed myself, even though I know painfully little about the market, mostly because I have no to little money to invest. I have about 24 grand in a retirement plan, that is split between a safe government option, and some iffy stock things, and that is about all I know. Yet despite knowing very little about the market, I am about to make a prediction based upon it.
My prediction is a straightforward one, and fairly simple. If oil drops a bit more, slowly but steadily over the next month, better yet if it drops another 15 to 20% over the next month, then the market will continue to be upbeat and maybe even continue to soar, so long as there are no major catastrophes like a terrorist attack on our soil. It has been a pretty conservative market from what I understand, not one built on the phony hopes of the dot.com companies of the 90's, so it may be able to maintain itself even if oil does not go down and the interest rates stay where they are. I doubt that oil will stay where it is, and I doubt that interest levels will rise, they may even fall a bit. So I am pretty certain that the market will do better. If the market does much better, with oil dropping quite a bit, and interest staying the same or dropping more, THEN THE REPUBLICANS REMAIN IN CONTROL AFTER THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS.
The trick is, can the market maintain itself. Is big business beholden enough to GWB and to the Republican Party to keep the market going, oil dropping and inflation down? You bet it probably is so long as nothing related to Mr. Murphy comes along to screw it up. It almost seems as if a plan is coming together. No this is not a conspiracy theory, just me thinking it almost seems as if there was a plan that was laid out, worked on, and now being fulfilled - not a bad plan at that if indeed it was a plan. Strange thing is economics - especially when looked at in the eerie light of politics. It almost makes the plan about revealing Foley's emails & IM's, when they were revealed to the public, look second rate amateurish.
Yes the Republicans may indeed know how to win an election. Time will tell.
All the best,
PS: Of course the plan could be to let it (the market) drop again, and then rally like crazy a week or two before the elections; but I think a steady pace on an upbeat note will do it better and I imagine so too do the strategists. Then again it could all flop. Maybe there is no plan. Yet, it is nice, at least for me, to think that the Democrats, at least most of them, may not stand a chance to take away Republican seats in the Congress, and maybe even lose some.
Cactus Wrens at the Feeders
3 hours ago