Monday, September 30, 2024

Am I A Doomsayer or Just Being Practical About Being Prepared?

China very recently curtailed exports of antimony and nitrocellulose to the United States. Antimony is extremely important to ammunition manufacture and to the manufacture of other national defense items. As per Fox News: "The little-known metal antimony is used in ammunition, infrared missiles, nuclear weapons and night vision goggles, as well as batteries and photovoltaic equipment. China produced nearly half of the world’s antimony last year."  China has been cutting back on critical elements needed for our national defense since at least last year. 

Other things that China has reduced exportation of are:

Gallium (used to produce micro-chips, semi-conductors and other electronics, many used in military applications). In 2022, China produced about 98% of the world's gallium. "Disruptions in the gallium market could pose significant challenges for U.S. and allied defense industries and cost hundreds of billions of dollars in economic losses." More at the source.

Germanium    

"Meanwhile, the demand for germanium for fiber optic communication networks, infrared night vision systems, and polymerization catalysts increased dramatically.[27] These end uses represented 85% of worldwide germanium consumption in 2000.[30] The US government even designated germanium as a strategic and critical material, calling for a 146 ton (132 tonne) supply in the national defense stockpile in 1987."

"Due to its use in advanced electronics and optics, Germanium is considered a technology-critical element (by e.g. the European Union), essential to fulfill the green and digital transition. As China controls 60% of global Germanium production it holds a dominant position over the world's supply chains." More at the source. 

Graphite "In 2018, the U.S. Government included graphite in its first-ever list of 35 minerals or “mineral material[s] that [are] essential to the economic and national security of the United States, that [have] a supply chain vulnerable to disruption, and that [serve] an essential function in the manufacturing of a product, the absence of which would have significant consequences for the economy or national security.”" More at the source.

 Please tell me that I cannot be the only one who sees these cutbacks to exportation of essential minerals/chemicals from China to the USA and other western nations as an extreme national security risk and as a potential prelude to world war. Of course, the export limitations could all have been put in place to exert pressure on governments to allow certain exports from western nations into China. Such things as more limitations of exporting computer chip technology to China were recently effected by the US. Something tells me though that if we want peace we had best prepare for war and to do so we had best be mining or producing these things ourselves. Just taking antimony alone into consideration, it is a critical element in the production of national defense hardware. Remaining dependent upon China, which undoubtedly will be our enemy in any world conflict, is truly ridiculous and U.S. politicians had better wake up soon over the shortages of antimony that the Chinese export restrictions will create and thus also of the national security weaknesses those restrictions will cause. "Antimony is a necessary material for the U.S. defense industrial base and is therefore critical to national security. However, the United States remains reliant on Chinese imports to meet domestic demand for antimony. “More at the source.

Of course, there will be other predictable fallout created by the export restrictions. One of them, close to home, will be that the cost of commercial ammunition will rise drastically as the supply of ammunition dwindles. So, those who are second amendment advocates, preppers, survivalists and so forth may want to consider buying ammo now before the prices go up even higher than the much inflated current prices. Add ton that the fact that there is a threatened strike of dock workers looming (more at the source); the prices may skyrocket for ammo if foreign ammo supplies are cut off due to a strike. Of course such a strike would affect many different types of imported goods, not just ammo. Things may be getting a lot more expensive in the near future, the union has threatened to strike as soon as October 1, this coming Tuesday (as I type). 

I for one recently bought a good deal of ammunition, not having to do with any of these issues but rather with the possibility of Kamala Harris winning the upcoming election. That would not only affect prices of all commodities, most likely making them rise, but would probably create a buying frenzy when it comes to guns & ammunition based upon her anti 2nd amendment ideals. Now with the export restrictions upon us and with a dock worker strike possibly imminent, I am thinking of purchasing even more ammunition along with firearms maintenance supplies like gun oil, gun cleaning solvents, cleaning patches & swabs and so on. I also recently purchased some of that but that was because I was running short of those items. Now, I may purchase more to have them in stock should it become tougher or nearly impossible to get them.

I will probably also be buying more supplies for the home, especially food products that remain edible for years such as canned goods. I will also increase my medical supplies, and other things needed for comfortable daily living in the home such as cleaning supplies, toiletries and others. If gold and silver were not so darned high priced now, I'd add more bullion to my meager stocks.

It may turn out that my fears are unjustified but I lived through 36 years of the original 45 yearlong Cold War and I was brought up to believe it was wise to have made survival preparations back then and I know, without a doubt in my mind, that it is prudent to do likewise today. If it turns out I do not need the items I have stocked up on, I can eat the food and sell the ammo and whatever else I have purchased or just save it all for another rainy day.

All the best, 
Glenn B